FromMichiel van der Vlist2:280/5555.0Date Write2018-06-28 22:27:14
ToRobert Bashe0:0/0.0Date Arrived2018-06-29 00:10:06
SubjIt's June 25th today
Hello Robert,

On Thursday June 28 2018 09:27, you wrote to me:

MV>> 1) The republic of Ireland leaves the EU and joins the UK.
MV>> 2) The Brexit is cancelled.
MV>> 3) Ulster leaves the UK and joins the EU.

MV>> None of these seem very likely. But a scenario where Ireland
MV>> remains in the EU and Ulster remains in the (brexitted) UK /and/
MV>> an open border between the two is impossible as I see it.

RB> I would agree on that.

So why are we the only ones seeing that what they want is impossible?

MV>> It is not unthinkable that "the troubles" will return... :(

RB> I also agree. One of the really main problems is that the border
RB> between Ireland and Northern Ireland is not straight, but curved and
RB> in some places there are really tight enclaves. It would require a
RB> border agreement between Ireland and Northern Ireland to produce a
RB> clean, linear border that might be easier to handle - but I don't see
RB> that coming, either.

The border is very irregular but I se no enclaves. Still, they will never be
able to straighten that before March 2019. Because that is the deadline. The
clock is ticking.

Choices will have to be made. And you know what? If they don't make a choice,
someone else will choose for them. The EU will never accept that part of their
peripheral boundery is open. The EU has already threatened that if no choice is
made, THEY will draw the EU boundery in the Irish sea. Because that is an
arrangement that they can enforce.

The Ulster/Irish border can remain open that way, but it will effectively
isolate Ulster from the rest of the UK. Many people will not like that, but it
may be the solution with the least net anger.

And of course that opens the road to Ulster joining the republic of Ireland...

Cheers, Michiel

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